The Albanese Government has distanced itself from the prospect of holding a second referendum on a republic, saying the topic is on hold. Yet, that may be a stalling tactic.
The legislation for a referendum needs to be passed by the federal parliament between two and six months before the referendum is to be held. They used the Voice to Parliament referendum to adjust relevant legislation like the Referendum (Machinery Provisions) Act 1984 (the Referendum Act), so the preparations and a test run have been completed.
The next federal election is expected to be held after the 12 of October 2024 and before 24 May 2025, as there is usually a half senate election with a federal election for the House of Representatives. A referendum held in conjunction with a general election is more likely to be passed.
If Albanese (or agents manipulating Albanese) want a referendum on a republic with the ARM Choice model they will have to start working on making the prospect public very soon. There are only five sitting weeks left this year. They would have to aim to have the legislation passed by November so campaigning could run through summer. If they leave it to 2025, they may run out of time, and not be able to shift the polls. There are usually no sitting days in December or January.
King Charles III will be visiting Canberra in October. He has always said that he supports Australia’s wish to become a republic, if that is what Australians want. If Albanese is banking on King Charles III giving his blessing for a referendum on a republic, he will have to start discussion of the topic this week. It would be rude to broach the topic during a royal visit of the monarch.
Lets see what happens. Maybe it is still on hold, as everyone expects it to be.
Update 11 September 2024
A public announcement about the Royal Visit of King Charles III has been made today. The Royal visit is scheduled from the 18th to the 23rd of October. That means that if Albanese is planning on a republic referendum he will have up till the Royal visit to announce it.
Given there is a sitting week from the 8th of October , if Albanese wants to go for the referendum, he will likely announce it during that week.
Perhaps we could determine his intention before that if his government is passing funding that could reasonably be for a referendum.
But if the Royal Visit has ended and there has been no mention of an impending referendum on a republic we can safely assume it will not happen at the next general election.